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3-Year trend · L3M 2026 vs 2025 · Spend & CPM relationship · AU · US · UK · CA · NZ
| Date | Event | Markets | CPM / Data Signal | Hypothesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Advantage+ Campaign Launches | ||||
| Oct 7 2025 | AU Meta Advantage+ live | AU | AU CPM on launch: $8.11. 7-day pre-launch avg: $10.28. CPM actually lower at launch than the preceding week. | AU is the first market to activate Advantage+. The launch coincides with the pre-BFCM period where Gift Card Season is also beginning (Oct 13). The CPM dip at launch suggests Advantage+ initially found efficient inventory — consistent with the algorithm’s learning phase expanding audience reach before tightening toward high-value users. CPM subsequently rises through Oct–Nov as BFCM auction competition builds simultaneously. |
| Mar 1 2026 | US (Southern) Advantage+ live | US | US CPM on launch: $18.23. 7-day pre-launch avg: $14.53. +25.5% spike at launch. | US (Southern) Advantage+ launches with an immediate +25.5% CPM spike vs the prior week. Advantage+ bids more aggressively for high-value users, lifting the floor price in the US auction. This is the largest single-week CPM increase in the US outside BFCM. The Mar 17 AU anomaly spike ($23.33) occurs 2 weeks later — worth investigating whether AU auction dynamics were influenced by the US Advantage+ algorithm expanding its targeting pool. |
| Mar 16 2026 | UK Meta Advantage+ live | UK | UK CPM on launch: $6.61. 7-day pre avg: $7.19. Post-14d avg: $7.50. Gradual uplift. | UK Advantage+ produces a more modest, gradual CPM increase (+5–10% over 2 weeks) compared to the US spike. UK is a smaller, less competitive auction — Advantage+ has less incremental bidding pressure to absorb. However the sustained post-launch elevation aligns with the r=0.67 spend-CPM correlation already confirmed for UK: the algorithm’s broader targeting effectively increases competitive spend, which UK’s illiquid auction translates directly into CPM uplift. |
| Apr 1 2026 | CA Meta Advantage+ live | CA | CA CPM on launch: $9.07. Post-14d avg: $10.80. +19% uplift in 2 weeks. | CA Advantage+ launches with no prior 7-day baseline (data gap). Post-launch CPM rises +19% over 14 days. Importantly, this Advantage+ launch is a compounding factor in the CA CPM rising despite spend falling (−11.6% YoY) — the algorithm is bidding more aggressively for the same or smaller budget, pushing CPM higher. This partially explains the CA spend-down / CPM-up pattern observed in the L3M data. |
| Apr 13 2026 | NZ Meta Advantage+ live | NZ | NZ CPM on launch: $9.87. 7-day pre avg: $8.62. Post-14d avg: $11.34. +31.6% post-launch rise. | NZ shows the strongest post-launch CPM uplift of any Advantage+ market (+31.6% over 14 days). NZ Advantage+ goes live the same day as the global Mothers Day campaign (Apr 13), meaning two simultaneous CPM-inflating events stack. The NZ Jun 2026 spike ($20.95) is likely a combination of: Advantage+ aggressive bidding + CWV delivery penalty compounding. This makes NZ the highest-risk market for CPM blowout in the current environment. |
| May 1 2026 | US (Northern) Advantage+ live | US | US CPM on launch: $13.36. 7-day pre avg: $15.83. CPM actually lower at launch than prior week. | US (Northern) Advantage+ launches on the same date as the CWV regression (May 1). The CPM dip vs prior week likely reflects the Mothers Day switch-off depressing spend. However, this launch coincides precisely with the start of the 28-day CrUX degradation window — making it impossible to isolate Advantage+ CPM effects from CWV penalty effects in subsequent weeks. US CPM from May 1 onward should be treated as having two compounding upward pressures: Advantage+ bidding behaviour and CWV quality score deterioration. |
| 2025 Campaign Events | ||||
| Jan 20 2025 | Valentine’s Day live | Global | AU CPM holding ~$12–13. US elevated at $13–16. | Valentine’s Day drives mild CPM uplift globally as advertisers compete for gifting audiences. Effect strongest in US due to deeper auction competition. |
| Feb 14 2025 | Valentine’s Day off | Global | CPMs return to baseline post-campaign. | Campaign switch-off releases auction pressure. No sustained CPM effect. |
| Mar 3 2025 | UK Mother’s Day live | UK | UK CPM begins climbing from ~$5 to $6–8 range. | UK Mother’s Day falls earlier than global markets (March). Increased UK auction competition lifts CPM ahead of the global campaign launch. |
| Mar 30 2025 | UK Mother’s Day off | UK | UK CPM eases before global MD ramp begins. | Brief UK CPM relief window. Global Mothers Day campaign launches 16 days later, reigniting competition. |
| Apr 15 2025 | Mother’s Day live | Global | AU CPM rises from $11–12 to $12.57 on Apr 15. US spikes to $20.34. NZ climbs to $12.46. | Global Mothers Day campaign drives broad auction competition. AU step-up here explains the 2025 YoY CPM anomaly — this is seasonal demand, not CWV (regression had not yet occurred). |
| May 11 2025 | Mother’s Day off | Global | AU CPM drops to $9.94. NZ falls to $10.90. US eases to $18.24. | Campaign switch-off immediately releases auction pressure. CPM drops confirm Mothers Day was the primary driver of the Apr–May 2025 CPM elevation. |
| May 13 2025 | AU Click Frenzy live | AU | AU CPM $11.03. Slightly elevated vs post-MD baseline of ~$9.94. | Click Frenzy adds incremental AU auction pressure immediately after Mothers Day winds down. Short window (3 days) limits sustained CPM impact. |
| May 15 2025 | NH Fathers Day live | NH markets | US CPM holds $18–19. Modest uplift. | NH Fathers Day adds spend to US/CA auctions. Effect partially masked by post-Mothers Day CPM normalisation. |
| Jun 15 2025 | NH Fathers Day off | NH markets | AU CPM hits $14.74 — elevated. US $17.76. | NH Fathers Day switch-off, but AU CPM remains elevated, suggesting AU/NZ Fathers Day campaign (Aug 11) is beginning to build auction competition. |
| Jul 8 2025 | AU Birthday + Flash Sale live | AU / US / CA / UK / NZ | AU CPM $12.68 on Jul 8, rises to $15.25 by Jul 13 (+20% over 5 days). Multi-market elevated. | Multi-market campaign activation simultaneously increases auction competition across all five markets. AU CPM spike post-launch is the sharpest single-week rise outside BFCM in the 3yr window. |
| Jul 11 2025 | Flash Sale off | AU / US / CA / UK / NZ | AU CPM plateaus then gradually eases. US $17–18. | 3-day window limits sustained CPM impact. Post-sale CPM normalises by mid-July, suggesting the auction market absorbed the temporary competition without lasting effects. |
| Aug 11 2025 | AU/NZ Fathers Day live | AU / NZ | AU CPM $10.98 on Aug 11, gradual rise to $13.03 by Aug 21. NZ modest uplift. | AU/NZ Fathers Day is the main H2 seasonal driver for these markets. CPM rises steadily as campaign spend scales up. Sustained 4-week window drives more pronounced CPM impact than shorter flash events. |
| Sep 7 2025 | AU/NZ Fathers Day off | AU / NZ | AU CPM falls to $8.27 on Sep 7 — lowest reading since Mar 2025. | Clean CPM drop on campaign switch-off confirms AU/NZ Fathers Day was the primary auction pressure driver. This is the most controllable campaign-level CPM driver for AU. |
| Oct 13 2025 | Gift Card Season live | Global | CPMs begin the pre-BFCM drift upward across all markets. | Gift Card Season marks the start of the Q4 competitive window. CPM begins a sustained upward trend that builds into the BFCM peak. Running through December amplifies the BFCM blowout effect. |
| Nov 28 2025 | BFCM live | Global | AU: $22.39 (+101% vs mean). CA: $26.44 (+129%). NZ: elevated. US: $33.17. | Black Friday / Cyber Monday is the single largest recurring CPM driver. All markets blow out simultaneously. This is structural and expected — plan budget accordingly in 2026. |
| Dec 1 2025 | BFCM off | Global | CPMs begin retreating but remain elevated through Dec 24. | Gift Card Season sustains elevated CPM through Christmas even after BFCM ends. Budget pressure remains higher than typical for the remainder of Q4. |
| Dec 24 2025 | Gift Card Season off | Global | CPMs reset toward baseline heading into Jan 2026. | Full Q4 seasonal cycle complete. Jan 2026 CPMs expected to return to pre-Q4 norms before Valentine’s Day campaign ramp begins. |
| 2026 Campaign Events | ||||
| Jan 19 2026 | Valentine’s Day live | Global | AU $8.67. US $12.83. UK $5.28. All markets at or below seasonal baseline. | Valentine’s Day 2026 launches into a period of healthy CPMs across all markets. No CWV issues active yet — this is a clean campaign window. CPM uplift is modest, confirming auction competition is normal. |
| Feb 14 2026 | Valentine’s Day off | Global | AU $9.19. US $15.75. CPMs normalise post-campaign. | Clean switch-off. CPM settles back to baseline, confirming Valentine’s Day was the marginal driver of any Jan–Feb uplift. |
| Feb 16 2026 | UK Mother’s Day live | UK | UK CPM $4.64 on Feb 16. Low starting point for UK MD window. | UK Mother’s Day 2026 launches at lower CPM than 2025 equivalent. UK auction market appears less competitive in this window, consistent with the 2026 overall UK CPM trend. |
| Mar 15 2026 | UK Mother’s Day off | UK | UK CPM $8.50 on Mar 15. AU $9.34, US $16.40. | UK MD 2026 end coincides with AU CPM anomaly (Mar 17 spike to $23.33). Unrelated events, but worth monitoring whether UK spend reallocation post-MD influenced AU auction dynamics. |
| Apr 13 2026 | Mother’s Day live | Global | AU $9.79. US $14.82. CA $12.28. NZ $9.87. Modest uplift vs baseline. | Mothers Day 2026 launches 2 days before CWV regression. CPM is still healthy at launch — this is the last clean campaign window before the mobile performance issue begins to compound costs. |
| May 10 2026 | Mother’s Day switch-off | AU, US, CA, NZ | AU $9.92. US $11.08. CPMs drop post-switch-off. | MD switch-off releases spend pressure just as the CWV regression begins silently degrading mobile quality. The CPM drop here creates a false sense of normalcy — the underlying penalty is building invisibly in the CrUX rolling window. |
| Market | 2024 avg | 2025 avg | 2026 avg | 24→25 | 25→26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | $18.28 | $16.61 | $15.06 | −9.1% | −9.3% |
| CA | $12.72 | $10.76 | $10.64 | −15.4% | −1.1% |
| NZ | $11.56 | $10.30 | $10.53 | −10.9% | +2.2% |
| AU | $10.31 | $11.89 | $10.71 | +15.3% | −9.9% |
| UK | $7.95 | $6.27 | $6.63 | −21.1% | +5.7% |
| Date | Event | Markets | CPM Signal | Hypothesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 2025 | UK Mother’s Day live | UK | UK CPM $6.86 on Mar 3. Baseline healthy. AU $11.07, US $15.67. | UK Mother’s Day 2025 launches with no platform penalties active. CPM uplift is modest and auction-driven. Compare to 2026 where UK CPM runs higher across the same window due to increased spend (+34% YoY). |
| Mar 30 2025 | UK Mother’s Day off | UK | UK CPM eases back toward $5–6 baseline. | Clean switch-off. No sustained CPM effect. A 16-day gap before global MD campaign begins. |
| Apr 15 2025 | Mother’s Day live | Global | AU $12.57. US spikes to $20.34. NZ $12.46. Significant multi-market CPM uplift on launch day. | This is the primary driver of AU’s 2025 CPM step-up vs 2024. Mothers Day global campaign drives sustained auction competition across AU, US, CA, NZ. No CWV issues — purely seasonal demand inflation. |
| May 10 2025 | Mother’s Day off (2025) | Global | AU $11.75. US $16.75. Easing but not yet at baseline. | 2025 MD switch-off shows a gradual CPM step-down. Compare to 2026 where the same switch-off (May 10) also drops CPM but masks an incoming CWV penalty. |
| May 11 2025 | Mother’s Day off / AU Click Frenzy live | AU / Global | AU CPM $9.94 (MD off). US $18.24. Click Frenzy adds brief AU CPM uptick. | In 2025, the MD switch-off produces a clean CPM drop with no competing penalty. Contrast with 2026 where the same switch-off masks CWV degradation. This is the clearest YoY comparison point. |
| May 15 2025 | NH Fathers Day live | NH markets | AU CPM $11.20. US $18.21. No significant spike. | NH Fathers Day 2025 adds moderate US/CA spend. Effect limited compared to the global MD campaign that just ended. CPM behaviour here is normal and expected. |
| Jun 10 2025 | NH Fathers Day off | NH markets | AU $11.54. US $18.44. NZ $9.34. | 2025 NH FD ends with CPM at normal operating levels. No blowouts, no platform penalties. This is what the Mar–Jun window should look like in 2026 without the CWV regression. |
| 2026 Meta Advantage+ Launches | ||||
| Mar 1 2026 | US (Southern) Advantage+ live | US | US CPM: $18.23 on launch vs $14.53 pre-launch avg. +25.5% immediate spike. | The US Southern Advantage+ launch is a direct contributing factor to the US CPM elevation seen through Mar–Apr 2026. The algorithm bids more aggressively for high-value users, raising the US auction floor. When comparing 2026 vs 2025 US CPM in the L3M window, this Advantage+ effect is a compounding factor alongside the later CWV penalty. Not all of the US 2026 CPM increase is attributable to CWV alone. |
| Mar 16 2026 | UK Meta Advantage+ live | UK | UK CPM: $6.61 on launch. Post-14d avg: $7.50. Gradual +5–10% uplift. | UK Advantage+ partially explains why UK CPM is running higher in 2026 vs 2025 (+16.8% YoY). The algorithm’s broader audience targeting combined with the +34% spend increase produces the strong r=0.67 spend-CPM correlation observed. To isolate the CWV effect on UK specifically, the Advantage+ baseline CPM inflation should be accounted for. |
| Apr 1 2026 | CA Meta Advantage+ live | CA | CA CPM: $9.07 on launch. Post-14d avg: $10.80. +19% rise in 2 weeks. | CA Advantage+ is a key driver of the CA CPM-up / spend-down paradox. The algorithm is bidding more aggressively on a smaller budget, which explains CPM rising +5.4% despite spend falling −11.6% YoY. The CWV penalty then amplifies this from May 29 onward. CA has two simultaneous upward CPM pressures from April: Advantage+ bidding + CWV degradation. |
| Apr 13 2026 | NZ Meta Advantage+ live | NZ | NZ CPM: $9.87 on launch. Post-14d avg: $11.34. +31.6% rise over 14 days. Highest Advantage+ impact of any market. | NZ Advantage+ launches simultaneously with the global Mothers Day campaign (Apr 13), creating an immediate double pressure on NZ CPM. The +31.6% post-launch rise is the strongest Advantage+ CPM effect observed across all markets. Combined with the Jun 2026 CWV spike ($20.95), NZ is the market most affected by compounding factors: Advantage+ bidding + seasonal demand + CWV penalty all active concurrently. |
| May 1 2026 | US (Northern) Advantage+ live | US | US CPM: $13.36 on launch vs $15.83 pre-launch avg. Lower at launch, but two compounding forces now active. | US Northern Advantage+ launches on the exact same date as the CWV regression (May 1). From this point, US CPM has two simultaneous upward pressures: Advantage+ aggressive bidding and the 28-day CrUX degradation building toward the Jun 1 collapse. It is not possible to fully isolate the CWV penalty from the Advantage+ effect in US CPM data from May 1 onward — both must be resolved to return US CPM to 2025-equivalent levels. |
| Apr 23 2026 | Desktop CWV fixed | All | CPM stable. No immediate change. AU ~$13, US ~$16–17. | Desktop CWV recovery does not immediately affect Meta CPM — Meta’s delivery scoring uses mobile-weighted signals. The fix being desktop-only means Meta sees no change in landing page quality for the majority of mobile traffic. |
| May 1 2026 | CWV regression deployed | All | CPM appears calm. AU $13.34. US $13.36. No immediate spike visible. | CrUX rolling average has 28 days of clean data buffering the impact. Meta’s relevance scoring hasn’t yet registered the degraded mobile experience. The damage is happening invisibly. |
| May 10 2026 | Mother’s Day switch-off | AU, US, CA, NZ | AU CPM drops to $9.92. US falls to $11.08. CPMs look healthy post-switch-off. | Budget reduction releases auction pressure, masking the early CWV penalty beginning to build. This is the window where the problem is hardest to detect — CPM looks like it’s improving while mobile pages are degraded. |
| May 11–14 2026 | Flash Sale (AU) | AU | AU CPM rises to $14.23–$15.56 during flash period. Elevated vs post-MD baseline. | Flash Sale spend increase drives AU CPM uplift. However, CPM is rising alongside degraded mobile pages — the campaign is spending more to reach users who then land on a broken experience. Conversion benefit is real but unsustainable. |
| May 16 2026 | Free PT Meta Melbourne live | AU | AU CPM $14.50. Remains elevated. CPC also rising in parallel. | New campaign layered on top of already-degraded mobile pages. Meta’s relevance score is now beginning to respond to the poor post-click experience. CPM inflation from here is partly platform-driven, not just spend-driven. |
| May 18 2026 | NCA campaign live | AU | AU CPM $13.71. Multiple campaigns active simultaneously in AU. | NCA campaign launches into a degraded mobile environment with elevated CPM. Any conversion data from this period is unreliable for future tCPA baselines — both the landing experience and the auction costs are abnormal. |
| May 25 2026 | Father’s Day live | US, CA, UK | US CPM $18.65 (rising). CA CPM $11.82. CPM creeping toward Jun 1 peak. | Father’s Day launches 4 days before full CrUX collapse. US and CA CPM begin accelerating as the combination of Father’s Day spend pressure and the approaching CWV penalty converge. The FD landing page records zero GA4 conversions despite active Meta spend. |
| May 29 2026 | CrUX 28d window closes | All | CPM building to peak. US $13.08, AU $14.70, CA $14.45, NZ $18.22. | Google’s CrUX rolling average now fully reflects 28 days of degraded mobile data. Quality Scores drop across all paid landing pages. Meta’s relevance algorithm is simultaneously penalising poor post-click experience. Both platforms enter penalty mode simultaneously. |
| Jun 1 2026 | CPA collapse — all markets | All | US $20.20 (+33% vs mean). CA $14.41 (+59%). AU $13.31. NZ $12.88. UK $10.22. | Full CPM blowout across all markets simultaneously. US Meta CPM hits its highest point since Black Friday 2024. Simultaneous multi-market, multi-platform spike definitively rules out creative, seasonal, or budget causes. The sole common factor is degraded mobile landing page quality. |
| Jun 3 2026 | Free PT Melbourne off | AU | AU CPM remains $15.83. No improvement on switch-off. | Campaign switch-off has zero effect on CPM. This is conclusive: the driver is platform-side quality penalty (CWV), not campaign spend. Reducing or pausing campaigns will not resolve CPM inflation until the mobile fix is deployed. |
| Market | Correlation 2025 | Correlation 2026 | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | r = 0.43 ↗ | r = 0.67 ↗ | Strong positive — more spend = higher CPM. Correlation strengthened in 2026. |
| CA | r = 0.12 — | r = 0.67 ↗ | Weak in 2025, strong positive in 2026. Spend-driven CPM inflation emerging. |
| NZ | r = 0.42 ↗ | r = −0.15 ↘ | Positive in 2025, flipped negative in 2026. CPM rising independent of spend — external penalty signal. |
| US | r = 0.29 ↗ | r = −0.07 ↘ | Positive in 2025, near-zero in 2026. CPM decoupled from spend — quality/relevance issue. |
| AU | r = −0.07 ↘ | r = −0.03 ↘ | Consistently near-zero. AU CPM driven by platform signals, not spend volume. |
| Market | Avg CPM 2025 | Avg CPM 2026 | CPM Δ | Spend Δ | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK | $6.41 | $7.49 | +16.8% | +34.0% | Spend↑ drove CPM↑ — spend-led inflation |
| NZ | $10.42 | $11.71 | +12.4% | +20.0% | Spend↑ + CWV penalty compounding |
| CA | $10.89 | $11.48 | +5.4% | −11.6% | CPM↑ despite Spend↓ — platform penalty signal |
| AU | $11.72 | $11.98 | +2.2% | −8.4% | CPM slightly↑ despite Spend↓ — CWV effect |
| US | $18.58 | $15.67 | −15.7% | −10.2% | Both down — spend reduction driving CPM relief |